Bahrain Mirror: The two researchers Ilan Zalayat and Yoel Guzansky at the Zionist "The Institute for National Security Studies" confirmed that there is "a sharp decline in support for the Abraham Accords (normalization agreements) between Bahrain and Israel," indicating that "the economic aspect of relations lagged behind."

They said that "Bahraini disappointment with normalization and local incitement against it should not be underestimated," noting that "this disappointment could also erode the flourishing security and military ties between the countries, and certainly have a negative influence on the decision of other countries that are considering normalizing their relations with Israel and deliberating the likely cost-benefit balance."

The researchers noted in an article entitled "Three Years to the Israel-Bahrain Normalization: The Forgotten Peace" that "The starting point for involving Bahrain in the Abraham Accords was more complex than that of the United Arab Emirates. Unlike the UAE, it has a parliament and vibrant civil society, which frequently challenges the Royal House. At the same time, Bahrain's political room to maneuver is limited due to its dependence on Saudi Arabia, which is also a consequence of its depleted oil reserves."

"A series of public opinion polls conducted in Bahrain since relations were forged with Israel show that there is no real difference between Sunni and Shiite attitudes to normalization," they added, highlighting "the sharp decline in support for the Accords over the years."

Zalayat and Guzansky said in their article that "Unlike the UAE, Morocco, and Sudan, Bahrain, as far as is known, was not promised any concrete reward by the US administration for joining the Abraham Accords."

They also stated that "the economic aspect of relations lagged behind. Figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics show that while trade between the UAE and Israel in 2021-2022 (excluding diamonds and services) amounted to about $2.5 billion, trade with Bahrain was worth only $20 million. Only a few thousand Israelis visited Bahrain."

"Speaking to the Israeli media, a source close to the government in Manama hinted that Bahrain would like to see Israeli investment in the Kingdom, and not just Israeli businesspeople coming for short visits to raise money for ventures in Israel."

They stressed that "the moves by the current Israeli government are certainly not good for relations, and that there have been no official high level meetings between the countries," pointing out that "the free trade agreement between Israel and Bahrain, finalized at the professional level a year ago and expected to encourage trade between the countries, has not yet been ratified by the leaders."

The two researchers warned that "the difficulties experienced by the Bahraini government in attempts to progress on normalization are not limited to the diplomatic realm," explaining that "the civil society in Bahrain demonstrated its ability to block certain normalization benchmarks with Israel, which had already been achieved in a similar way in countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia without significant public opposition." Bahraini disappointment with normalization and local incitement against it should not be underestimated.

Zalayat and Guzansky concluded their article by saying that "Bahraini disappointment with normalization and local incitement against it should not be underestimated." They added that "In the long term, this disappointment could also erode the flourishing security and military ties between the countries, and certainly have a negative influence on the decision of other countries that are considering normalizing their relations with Israel and deliberating the likely cost-benefit balance."

They considered that "the importance of the agreement between Israel and Bahrain goes far beyond the benefits of bilateral cooperation - the treaty represents a kind of trial balloon for Saudi Arabia, which is examining the advantages and disadvantages of ties with Israel against the background of the US initiative to promote normalization between Jerusalem and Riyadh."

Arabic Version